I recently read on the superb Bits About Money blog an article which in its course explained what a bagman is - a term which in the finance industry means an individual who is responsible the illegal movement of money.
The article was discussing a particular individual involved in some large digital currency failures, and was making a particular point - that this individual is interesting in a number of ways, but that you have to remember he is a bagman and interpret his actions and so on in that light.
(Some chap in the US was buying a small bank - which was fine and okay and whatever, until you considered that he was the bagman for Binance.)
This is a critical point; when we look at what people do, how we interpret their actions depends on what we understand of them.
This brings us now to the new U.S. administration.
I note the following, from the last two or three days;
With regard to the first, given the problem now of elections being taken by mass deception, this is the formal introduction of dictatorship. The current proposal is the smallest possible, to make it maximally palatable, to ensure continuation in power. If it succeeds, at the end of that third term, there will be another proposal, for at least another term. What makes this is so transparent as a power grab is the wording which specifically blocks former Presidents who have run two terms from a third; only a sitting President can do so.
It was obvious this would be tabled. I started speaking of it a few years ago (as I’m sure many others realized as well).
I am now of the view that the U.S. is no longer an actual, functioning democracy, regardless of this proposal. Too many voters have been deceived, and believe deception, and so although they are acting of their free will, it is not a well-informed free will, and it is these people who have installed the administration.
There is now a dictator at the head of a democratically organized State, a dictator who controls both chambers and so holds the levers of power. The Democratic State will be dismantled to the extent necessary to ensure the continuation of power, but probably not much is needed, as deception is already sufficient.
I aver also Putin is bringing as much money as can be brought to bear in this matter, and in the matter of all Western elections - that chap in Romania just recently, “Ukrainian is a fictional State”. He is Putin’s man, either directly and knowingly, he acts as he does, foully, with profound harm to Romania, the West, and Ukraine, simply for his own benefit, to obtain Putin’s backing and manipulation of election in his favour, just as with Orban and Fico.
All countries have Quislings.
With regard to the second, firing the FBI staff involved, this is vindictive. Those men were doing their job, doing the work they were instructed to do.
With regard to the third, this is darkness. Forbidden phrases, selected and mandated by State.
To the last; when a nation experiences existential threat, it is not normal to hold elections, and for an administration which has just taken an election by means of mass deception to ask for an election in another country has nothing to with democracy or freedom.
A call from this source for election, is and is only an attempt to get rid of Zelenskyy.
To do so makes sense to me only as part of an attempt to force an end to the current hot war - a cease-fire - by changing UA Government, to look to make them more compliant, and likely giving Putin enough that he accepts. Russia will re-arm, and then invade a second time, and then attack NATO in about 2030.
This is obvious, it is madness, but given the source, we can grasp it could be proposed.
The strategy now for UA is to manage the U.S. administration to extract as much military help as possible, and look to Europe to get its act together. Europe is now facing much more pressure, because even still is has been relying on the U.S., rather than stepping up fully. The more pressure Europe bears, the more it will be forced to step up, because the alternative is most of the Ukrainian population coming over the border as refugees, and of course then also an attack on NATO in about five years time.
It occurred to me today Mr. Musk’s purchase of Twitter was a preparatory move for his move to being Mr. Trump’s right hand man. Suddenly it makes sense, and the cost of it makes sense, because those billions are worth it if it helps you get into the position he is now in.
Something to be aware of is that the US economy is going to start declining.
When you have dictators, you get corruption - favourism, inefficiency, supporting broken companies, subsidies to friends, crazy economic policies, frightening off investment, tariffs preventing efficient cross-border trade, take-overs by favoured friends of the State, you name it.
Economies grow only when they are not prevented from running well.
Right now marks the point where the US economy starts to receive what I think will be a set of discouraging factors so great that the economy is going to suffer, and keep suffering, and things will get worse over time.
These problems will be blamed on everyone else, and the proposed solution will be even more of what’s been done already. Elections will be rigged to the extent needed to win them, which means pushing the lies prior to voting, as has already happened in the recent election, with as the situation becomes worse over time, increasingly heavy-handed interference in elections, as this becomes necessary to keep winning, and the constitution will be amended to allow for more than two terms, with the effort to make that change already underway (constitutional amendment, and one which permits only sitting presidents a further term - specifically excluded former presidents, i.e. Obama, Clinton).
Be aware Google have silently pushed out to Android a new background service which scans all your photos and blurs those it thinks you shouldn’t see, yes - really. You can uninstall.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.google.android.safetycore
Security risk! Censorship app that filters your data & pictures when active. This app was auto installed on my device without my consent. The app filters and blurs content google thinks you shouldn’t see. Deleted. It comes with full permissions for data roaming and all. Not GDPR compliant. Surveillance software.
https://mastodon.sdf.org/@jack/113952225452466068
So, first things first.
Everyone appointed by Mr. Trump is a nobody. People who are secure in themselves appoint the best and most capable men they can find; people who are insecure appoint people who are weak and will never provide resistance or challenge. Everyone in power now is a minion; what you see is what and only what Mr. Trump wants.
Mr. Trump is above his ceiling, which is to say, is trying to undertake a role he is not capable of undertaking. When this happens to a man, he conducts his new role using the methods and approaches of his old, simpler, more limited role. This does not work.
None of the people working for Mr. Trump can help him in this. Even if they have the sense to know it, and remember here they are all chosen to be wholly obedient and unthreatening, which strongly implies people who are not capable, he will not want to hear it.
Mr. Trump himself is a dictator. I suspect he has run his companies like this, and he can, because he is the owner, and he sees his role now in the same way, which is incorrect. We will now see all the mechanism of State abused to further his own ends, and his own ends are selfish, vicious and vindictive. Anyone in Government who points out anything which looks bad will be fired, or worse. All of the intelligence agencies, with their incredible powers of surveillance, are now in his hand. We now reap the seed sown over the last decades of the State acquiring for itself the most enormous de jure and de facto powers. We also have seen already the constitutional amendment to allow Mr. Trump and Mr. Trump alone to take a third term, and of course in event that did happen, then during that third term another amendment would come to allow more, with elections through deception and any other necessary means rigged to the minimum degree necessary to ensure a successful “re-election”.
The next major step will be attacks on the judicial system, as this is now getting in the way of Mr. Trump orders. In the longer term, the economy will now begin to go to hell, because of corruption, lack of confidence in justice, State favouritism, lack of selection of anything based on merit, all the usual problems - see Hungary, Venezuela, Russia, Cuba, Turkey, etc. It’s a well understood path. Countries are wealthly when they have low taxes, a tolerable administration of justice, and no war. You need all three. Eric Adams, the deeply corrupt mayor of NYC, has just had all his charges dropped by the DoJ. The State Department has just signed a contract to buy 400 million USD of… Tesla armoured cars. Repeat this endlessly and at greater and much greater magnitude. Then start to print money (because you don’t want to raise taxes - people can see you do that). Add a bent court system. Result is a corrupt country with a failing economy.
We are not dealing here with someone who is essentially like previous Presidents. We now have a dictator, who sits on top of a formerly democratic system, and we need to adjust our expectations and predictions accordingly. This is hard - we really don’t believe it, I think.
As we’ve seen, there is now constitutional crisis, because Mr. Trump is usurping the power of Congress. In any event, elections in the US have stopped working anyway, because too many people have been wholly deceived, and bought into, by the outright blatant lies coming from Mr. Trump and the Republican Party; everything must be voluntary and well-informed, except in self-defence, and the problem here is that too many people are now no longer well-informed. The Republican Party now is gone, wholly subverted and, by that supine, by the lies believed by its voters.
So, that’s the situation as of now.
What comes of it?
Firstly, it’s possible Mr. Trump may die and some sort of sanity return. He is 78. That’s a wildcard. He may also be assassinated. I’ve been hoping for mass protests in the USA, millions of people, but I don’t see it.
Secondly, for Ukraine, one of the following must happen;
In any event, it’s not over now, and the bulk of Ukraine continues as it is, and either continues to fight or prepares for the next round.
Thirdly, for the USA, they now follow the downward path of authoritarianism. The Dems lack the capability to stop this, and it looks to me like the Republicans are too cowed to break up into conflicting groups and so stop anything from actually happening. The court system will be subverted, so Mr. Trump can rule by executive order - he is now a dictator, no Senate or Congress or law to check or balance - and he is no Pericles, to use that position wisely, but a Cleon, who leads his people, as they cheer him on, to their combined disaster.
Eventually, Mr. Trump will die, but by then I think democracy will be subverted, and as in Venezuela, an unpopular successor dictator will step into the role.
Finally, for Taiwan, China will invade, with all the consequences that will bring to Taiwan itself and the global economy. If there is a cease-fire in Ukraine, the invasion will occur when Russia invades again.
I am going to head out to Ukraine and join their army. If the world is going to come crashing down, and that looks by far the likely outcome, I want to have a gun in my hand and be fighting it.
I wanted to make a Twitter account to post something supportive to Danielle Sassoon, she has an account there. When you try to make a new account, Twitter now asks you to complete ten captchas, which is a full five minutes of non-stop captcha completion.
I think I have a handle on what Donald is looking to do now with Vladimir and Ukraine. First, Donald gives Vlad everything he needs for a cease-fire; no NATO, current front-line, no peace-keeping troops, etc. This is prior to negotiation, so that it doesn’t look like they gave in. Then this offer is presented to Ukraine, with the threat that if they do not accept, American military aid stops. UA does not accept (all it is, is a temporary cease-fire during which Vladimir re-arms furiously, and continues doing everything possible to undermine Western elections, before invading again in a year or two), then Donald says “Vladimir wants peace, UA doesn’t, UA is the problem, we’re out”. Donald will be called “peace”, not “one or two year pause before a fresh invasion”.
Solzhenitsyn wrote:
Evil people always support each other; that is their chief strength.
Donald is a dictator. He has more in common with Viktor (Orban), and with Vladimir, than with Western leaders.
Have we begun to consider the possibility of Donald forming an alliance with Vladimir?
Interesting post on bsky.
https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3li3vn5nns22v
Russian State has way, way too much to pay out on bonds this year, and their ability to raise revenue looks to be insufficient. The word “default” looks to be on the cards.
We but very dimly see the troubles of of our enemy - here we have a glimmer of insight.
Okay.
Where to begin.
Donald means USA is now out of the game. Donald is giving Vladimir everything he wants, which is to conquer Ukraine ASAP. So cease-fire only, no foreign troops, Russia keeps existing territory, all sanctions removed, etc. One or two years, Vladimir invades again. EU+UA will have nothing to do with it.
Bits of the EU still seem to be adjusting to new reality. UK talking about “US backstop” to EU forces in UA. USA has gone. This is not on the menu. EU now wholly dependent on and only on itself.
My concern now is actually that Donald may ally with Vladimir. Suspect EU has not thought at all about being threatened from USA, by whatever means those threats come.
I suspect actual situation now is EU NEEDS UA for collective defence against Russia plus whatever help it ends up getting from USA (and along with the help it already has from China).
As the Ukrainians say, “war came to us”. War now comes to EU.
USA is now out of the game. Donald is utterly unreliable and looks to be in hoc with Vladimir. This is a result of long-term Russian intervention, as we also saw in Slovakia and Romania, and Hungary too.
UA with current EU support and without US support probably loses. This results in some tens of millions of refugees coming into Europe and fully frees up Russia army to attack Europe.
Europe with US support will lose to Russia. I expect US troops to be withdrawn soon; Donald is about to replace top levels of military leadership with men chosen for loyalty (rather than competence), then it will happen.
EU now has to support UA at least sufficiently that UA does not lose (but UA needs to win, and ASAP, because the longer the war goes on, the more risk there is - as we have seen with the loss of the USA).
EU cannot support UA enough unless it actually gets involved in the fighting.
That’s what now needs to happen.
One or two asides.
Starlink will stop being available in UA. That’s a big pain, but it’ll be worked around well enough.
UK nuclear deterrent, Trident, the missiles depend on US maintenance and servicing. This is no longer reliable. EU now only have the French nuclear weapon to actually rely on.
USA is now in the process of becoming dictatorship. Only way out is mass protest, and I don’t see it happening. They’re in for a long, long descent, like Venezuela. Europe now needs to arm itself to the teeth, and get as many immigrants as possible, because it needs as many people, to have the largest economy, to fund the military, as it can.
How do you go about having free elections when your enemies are doing everything they can to subvert and deceive people, and people are buying into the lies?
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