Donald has failed to deliver peace or even a temporary cease-fire, which was not a surprise in any way, and blamed Zelenskyy for “not being ready for peace”.
US State Dept. has now stopped helping with repairs/recovery/etc of UA electricity production, seemingly in retaliation.
Every day, and for some time now, I am expecting all military aid to end. That it has not puzzles me - perhaps Donald does not have the authority to do so, since it was granted by Congress. But we can be certain no further military aid will come.
Remember also Donald has instructed US military to cut budget by 8% per year for next five years. This does not tie up with the alleged concern about China, who are building up their military like crazy, to invade Taiwan.
Also turns out a week or two ago, US Cyber Command instructed to halt all planning relating to Russia, and specifically Russia, not other countries.
So this leads to two things;
Is Donald a fool or a knave? is he above his ceiling and fucking everything up, or is he actually in some way serving Vladimir? this has some importance, because USA manufacturers a lot of ammunition and weapons and if the EU can buy them, that makes supplying UA substantially easier.
The EU will now step up, because without UA, they’ve had it, and also because if UA goes down, some tens of millions of refugees come over the border, and because the EU, still being almost wholly run by people who are not fools or knaves, is horrified by Vladimir’s invasion of UA. (The exceptions are Orban and Fico, both Putin’s men.)
NATO will continue to exist, but understood that USA, Hungary and Slovakia will be neutral aganst Russia.
Sooner or later EU countries will be fighting in UA to support UA, because it will be necessary, to keep UA up. That’s the next big step.
The costs of war, and Donald’s tariffs, will induce a widepread recession, and in general once countries have adjusted to that, annual growth rates are lower, because we’re all then less efficient.
Couple of different things.
In the Oval Room meeting, the man in the crowd who criticised Z for not wearing suit was none other than BF of Marjorie Green Taylor - she’s a full-on MAGA fruitcake, Donald to the core. I suspect he was a plant.
My theory before all of this was D would arrange an impossible “peace treaty”, then blame Z for not signing, then withdraw all US aid.
News now coming out aid is now being “considered” and also sanctions against RU being “examined to see which could be removed”. Donald is now calling for, and having all his fully controlled appointed men ask for, Z to resign. He is voice in wilderness with this. Reds of world horrified and incredulous.
You’ll note in fact the absence of any kind of treaty at all, flat out - there isn’t even a pretence of one. I was wrong about that. What’s happening is D has completely surrendered, from a position of absolute strength, to Vladimir, and is directing US policy to the benefit of RU, in exchange for zero, nothing.
I think D is in some way beheld to V.
So we have nothing for a treaty - not even a shame cease-fire treaty - and we will now see D cut of all aid, and remove sanctions, and push for Z to resign. Also of course with this already we cannot in any way think to rely on US defence of Europe itself, so that’s already happened, whether or not the troops have left yet.
Now here’s something new and interesting. Talking to business acquaintances today, West Coast USA, they are hearing allegations that Biden had a minerals already with Z, and Z said he would sign and then did not. I strongly think this to be complete fabrication.
So where does this leave us?
In more or less exactly situation expect. USA is out of the game. I didn’t think about sanctions, but obviously good for V to have them removed. Only wildcard now is if USA actively, not just passively, works with RU - can EU continue to buy munitions from USA?
EU is now stepping up. Seizure of RU asserts on the cards, large scale defence increases, even boots on ground and planes in air, in UA, being talked about. EU finally with the picture. EU forming new group, without USA, Hungary, and Slovakia, so it will be functional.
Donald I would say has overplayed his hand. He’s not removed Z, but D has revealed himself. EU now under no illusions and is now getting its act together.
EU economy basically equal to US economy in size. EU is strong, if it goes to 4% defence spending, and it can.
Need time to re-arm though - first two years are slow. Boots on ground in UA needed during that time to keep UA up.
RU economy looks now to have peaked - just starting to begin to weaken. Given the massive costs of war, I think they have a long way to drop - they’ve been like a man throwing back Red Bull to keep going.
US release of sanctions will help that, but won’t stop it.
The coup in USA proceeds - judges and courts on the way - and corruption is kicking in. The bitcoin reserve is a way to channel vast amounts of money to cronies. Tariffs are going to totally fuck the economy. Venezuela in the USA now.
USA needs a revolution, but I think the problem is they, like everyone to whom this happens, can’t believe it’s actually happening.
By the time they really understand, it will need mass violence on the streets of WDC to eject Donald.
My American friends are all horrified, and the mass of Americans hate what’s happening; remember that. Donald is the problem, plus mass deception by Vladimir and Donald/MAGA. Stand with Americans themselves. They’re an amazing people, and they have saved our asses in the EU two or three times now. We owe them everything.
So bit of a change - something about Redshift!
I know right :-)
I’ve just been chatting to a fellow sufferer, he’d bumped into the new classic resize.
I’d heard about it some months back, but looking at what he found, we’ve seen some more detail, and so here I can describe the practical high-level upshot of what we’ve seen.
So, originally there was classic resize.
New cluster comes up, original goes read-only, all data copied over, redistributed, once all done, new cluster is up, and you swap to it. Note here billing is always for one cluster only. Problems : can perfectly well take days, no time estimate, not wholly reliable. Can freeze up.
Then elastic resize.
With this, number nodes changes, number of slices unchanged.
Elastic appears to resize quickly (30 mins say) but actually the new nodes have no data on local disk - it’s all in S3. Cluster then starts bringing data down from S3. So performance is smacked up until data finishes coming down to local disk. On an idle 8 node ra3.16xlarge, I saw about 1 TB coming down every 30 mins or so. If the cluster went back into normal use, that dropped to about 100 GB per hour.
Basically you need to wait after elastis for S3 to get down to local disk. Depending on your data size, can be a number of hours. There’s a view in RST to show how much data is on local disk and how much in S3.
So here we see something which is presenting itself as complete when it’s not, and the actual state of play is very hard to find in the system tables. I found it hard, and I know those damn tables.
Moving on, we now have new classic resize, and we now find more of the same - the resize comes back quickly and presents as “done” but in fact nothing has been done. All the work is now being done async, performance gets hit. Far as I know, not documented.
So what we saw was this; number of nodes changed, number of slices became correct, we were resizing down so we had two data slices to get rid of.
Looking at tables, we saw key dist had changed to even (there are not auto tables), and all the data from each extra slice had been downloaded en bloc and added to one slice, in the new cluster.
So before, we had a table with say 5m rows per slice. We lost two slices in total. Now we have on one node two slices with 10m rows each, all other slices and on all other nodes 5m rows. Where dist is even this works.
What you can see is a direct download from S3, no redistribution has occurred.
So now your table is borked. It’s not key, and it’s highly imbalanced. You can run a query on it, the data is there, but you wouldn’t want to, and if you had a real system which needs key for performance, hey, maybe you’re toast. Your system doesn’t actually meet business needs any more, because it’s too slow.
This is not documented, and you can’t stop it from happening, it takes days (as with the original classic resize) for RS to finish the background work of getting things back to key dist AND now you’re paying for this messed up cluster.
I’ve always said with RS don’t do resize. Never do it. RS is not resizable. First, it’s too slow (who can have a cluster out of action for days), second, there’s no time estimate, third, it’s not wholly reliable. It can freeze up.
Elastic resize is no good (compute slices, ra nodes running only specification number of slices at once so query time doubles, dc nodes run all slices at once so memory shortage problems), the new classic resize is worse than the original.
The way you solve this problem is the ETL system. Arrange ETL so you can run multiple clusters concurrently. When you want to resize, bring up a new cluster of the required size, populate it, move all users over, when no one is using the original, shut it down.
Do not resize Redshift clusters.
I now have a theory about what the minerals deal is about.
Minerals deal in any economic sense, or source for strategic minerals, makes zero sense at all, and the second version was simply a jointly controlled fund of 50% of the profits of State owned minerals/infrastructure.
So if it makes no sense in and of itself, what’s it about?
My theory is that the deal IS the security guarantee Donald intended to present to world as the security guarantee to UA - D would say “this will stop V from invading again, so you can now sign the ‘peace deal’, where you don’t join NATO, RU keeps all terrain, and there are no peacekeepers or other US guarantees”.
Current situation is there is no agreed “peace” deal (for peace or cease-fire, of course, read “second invasion is year or less”). This has not been created, does not exist, is not being presented.
So we have D removing all support from UA and all leverage on RU, before making a “peace deal” with RU, and doing everything he can to say Z “doesn’t want peace” and it looks like setting up Z at Oval Office to blame him for “not wanting peace”, then pushing hard for Z to be removed - and we don’t even have a “peace” deal yet.
It’s absolutely back-to-front, I mean, apart from being evil and hideous.
This is never how you negotiate a deal. This is how you set someone up.
I think we then have minerals deal presented as “this will prevent V from invading again!”, which a blind idiot on an actual other planet would know would not, all US support for UA removed, Z removed if they can manage it, then D proposes “peace deal” with Vladimir, which gives RU everything it wants; no NATO, keeps territory, no peacekeepers, and hey - maybe even Z gone!
UA and EU say “what the actual fuck?” and D then walks away, USA gone.
I’ve been saying for a while now D is beheld to V. I see all this validating that claim. D is setting UA up for RU to invade second time.
I think UA here has done EU the most profound good service. If UA had fallen, then D came to power, EU would now be totally and utterly fucked - RU would invade and EU would have fallen.
EU needs for honour and self-protection to get boots on ground and planes in air, and fight fully with UA, in UA only, right now. Let’s try to limit the conflict.
As an aside, there’s a huge amount of hybrid war going on now in Europe. RU is basically attacking Europe, both physically and through propaganda and subverting elections.
We are at war, except we’re pretending someone is not stealing our stuff, slashing our tyres, and is going to kill us if they get the chance.
As of ten minutes ago, I began to contemplate/recognize that Donald may in fact be the problem now, not Vladimir. EU+UA can handle RU - RU is economically just not that strong and military is fucked up because of dictatorship. But USA has biggest military in world and right now, prior to military getting fucked up by dictatorship (as this takes time), military is super-effective (same as Germany 1939).
I begin to consider/recognize that Donald may genuinely now be looking to expand USA territorically, to actually take over Canada and Greenland (and whatever comes after), and if he did, who could stop it?
This is a much more serious problem than Vladimir.
This is same as Adolf, taking over weaker neighbours. Vladimir also. Dictators on the loose.
This is a scenario which potentially leads to the end of everything as we’ve known it all our lives.
Also brings us to contemplating scenarios which set us up for danger of large scale nuclear war.
News coming out Donald has people talking to Yulia Tymonshenko, former PM, about making an election happen. Presumably with her as leading candidate to replace Z.
Election will be rigged as much as RU and Donald can manage.
Elections here are being used as means to an end, which is getting rid of Z, and I think now Donald specifically is setting UA up to be invaded a second time.
Rumours just beginning to be aired of Donald thinking to move US troops in Germany, to Hungary.
(From a practical, military point of view, I find this so questionable as to be ludicrous. Where would you base them and how would you supply and support them? what about schools for their kids, hospitals for medical services? moving 35k people (US troops in DE) is the same as moving a small town. Hungary currently has (Internet digging) about 100 US troops. Also, how do the deployments in other EU countries make sense when the troops in Germany move? what about communications, support from other military arms, actual military effectiveness?)
But what I am thinking is that Donald is in some way beheld to Vladimir.
We’ve seen Donald go neutral on UA - no support.
We’ve seen Donald leave NATO; it’s clear article 5 is dead for USA, and EU is now massively re-arming as a result.
I’m expecting US sanctions against Russia to end.
The question is how far does Donald go in actively supporting and joining with Vladimir?
Hungary is run by Putin’s man, Orban.
Moving US troops there completely eliminates US effectiveness in Europe, and moves them into a position where they are supporting Vladimir.
It’s another step in the direction of supporting Vladimir, and that’s all I’m seeing from Donald.
There’s an old saying : prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
I am reminded that in WW2, in French North Africa, French troops - their country having been conquered by Germany, with the Gestapo at work for a couple of years by then - fought and killed and were killed, the combined US and UK invasion of North Africa, where those countries were fighting to defeat Germany and free France.
Good countries and their militaries can end up perfectly well fighting on the side of evil.
Next steps for Donald looks to be to invoke Insurrection Act.
Old law from about 1800. Basically allows use of military units to enforce civilian law.
This ties up with firing heads of US military and top military lawyers.
Military force for policing is necessary when you’re going to do something like suspend the Constitution. The police are not necessarily going to go along with this; military are conditioned to obey orders, and have the capability to kill en mass, which is effective in discouraging protest.
This is the next step in coup.
It seems to me USA not going to have elections again, Constitution and elections will be suspended (“the crisis in the south”, or maybe the crisis in Europe, or whatever excuse is used). The law suits coming from the States and so on? they’re playing the wrong game.
Far as I can judge, US admin current plan is to give UA to RU.
RU are conceding nothing, so UA must concede everything, in order for a cease-fire, which RU in due course will break by invading second time.
RU demands;
This is a complete and utter non-starter for UA.
USA can’t get RU to do anything different.
So I think it all ends with Donald going “Z doesn’t want peace”, end of talks.
So, quick recap.
Donald Trump - currently running a coup in USA. Removing all checks and balances, concentrating all power in his hands, then doing what he likes. Today’s step was to arrest, disappear and then deport a green card holder for protesting - not charged with a crime of any kind. When/if actual revolt begins to occur, Insurrection Act will be invoked, and military force used - killing people - to oppress revolt. Canada given 25% tariff for not wanting to be a US State; Canada imposes tariff in return, Donald next day adds another 25% of US tariff.
The list of his sins is long, far longer than I can recap here.
This is a good post giving an over-view of the effects going on;
https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/real-chilling-effects
So, this guy - Donald - who has for months been saying UA has to give up territory, hold elections, get rid of Zelenskyy, has stopped providing civilian aid, then military aid, now stops updates to jammers on F-16 from everyone who sent F-16 to UA, withdrew intel, stopped CIA/NSA from defending UA from cyberattack - this guy now comes out with “we have agreed a cease-fire with UA, no conditions, now I take it to Vladimir and hopefully we will agree”.
The fuck?
We on drugs? what??
There’s no way, no way at all, not in the whole world, Donald has suddenly become normal/decent/sane.
So what’s going on?
If Donald goes to Vladimir and Vladimir says “fuck off”, then Donald looks stupid.
If Donald goes to Vladimir and Vladimir says “why of course we can have a cease-fire, all those conditions I had before I was just joking”, then the fix is in - Donald and Vladimir agreed something beforehand. Question then is why? my guess : EU stepping up big time with military re-armament. Vladimir overplayed his hand; thought UA would be easy. Turns out EU politics not yet been messed up enough by long-term polarization/corruption attacks from Russia (unlike USA, alas). RU economy has peaked, and I’m reading they are going to complete fail to meet bond repayments this year - out of money. RU now on ropes? over-extended? EU stepping up enough to make impossible to take UA - so time for a break, to re-organize, and of course, try again, for Vladimir has no more changed than Donald.
Current guesses are that US sanctions are what’s in play now.
Donald goes to Vlad with cease-fire, Vlad says “but of course, and forget all my previous requirements (but we keep all currently held land), BUT your US sanctions must go”.
EU and US now at odds with each other. RU economy (which has peaked and is now just starting to go downhill) gets to cushion the blow/recover. Vladimir then goes in for second round in due course.
Will EU put troops in EU on the basis of a cease-fire? I don’t think so - to do is really to commit to fighting for UA, and they haven’t go there yet. Vlad can keep the cease-fire a bit hot, too, to deter EU.
Also by taking the pressure off UA, Vlad maybe hopes EU re-armament goes off the boil.
Let’s see what Vlad comes out with.
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